HIV and STIs

Through modelling prevention strategies the Centre advises policy makers on how to tackle the HIV/AIDS epidemic.

Projects

Theoretical Models and Causal Pathways Responsible for Patterns of Risk for STIs

Models such as the proximate determinants framework or the social epidemiology framework provide hypotheses for the links between distal and proximal determinants of risk of acquisition of HIV and other STDs. In the context of this project, the validity of these causal pathways is explored through structured statistical analyses.

The Epidemiology, Impact and Control of HIV in Rural Zimbabwe

This project involves the analysis of cohort data collected through the Manicaland HIV Prevention Programme monitoring the spread, demographic impact and the consequences of interventions in an open cohort of approximately 15,000 people in rural Zimbabwe.

Modelling the impact of human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination and the impact of a community randomised trial of HPV vaccination in Finland

This work is focused on the development and analysis of models of HPV vaccination and cervical screening programmes and their impact on cervical cancer.

Modelling outbreaks of syphilis and the control of bacterial STDs in the UK

This work aims to understand the impact of patterns of behaviour, the natural history of infection and disease and the impact of case finding and treatment through a comparison of models and data.

Mathematical Modelling Tools in Response to the HIV Epidemic in Zimbabwe

Working with government officials and NGO providers in Zimbabwe models were developed to analyse specific questions related to national HIV control policy.

Monitoring HIV Trends in the UK

Analysis of trends in HIV incidence, risk behaviours, and health outcomes in the UK to contribute to the Department of Health, Expert Advisory Group on AIDS.

Trends in HIV Prevalence

Understanding the relationsip between behaviour change and HIV prevalence

Monitoring HIV Patients in the Netherlands

This project analyses treatment patterns and patient outcomes in the Netherlands using models of declines in CD4 and of the interaction between the virus and the host immune system.

Analysis of Sexually Transmitted Disease Epidemiology in Peru

An urban community randomized controlled trial of syndromic management of STIs through pharmacist training and regular screening of sex workers was carried out in 20 cities in Peru.

STI Transmission and Antibiotic Resistance

We are exploring a range of model structures, including pair, meta-population and network models to better understand the implications these have for STI/HIV transmission. These models are being applied, using data from the GRASP survey undertaken by the Health Protection Agency in the UK, to understand the spread of antibiotic resistance and to understand the role of primary infection in HIV transmission.