Professor Christl A Donnelly
Professor of Statistical Epidemiology
School of Public Health
St Mary's Campus
Professor Christl A Donnelly
Having worked on a variety of diseases, my research is probably best described methodologically as synthesizing statistical and biomathematical methods for the analysis of epidemiological patterns of infectious diseases. This approach combines robust parameter estimation and hypothesis testing with the insights provided by dynamical models of disease transmission, host demography and interventions. I also have interests in ecology, conservation and animal welfare.
My research programme aims to improve our understanding of (and ability to predict) the effect of different interventions on infectious agent transmission dynamics and population structure - and thereby better inform the design of control strategies. Without good estimates of epidemiological parameters and knowledge of the associated uncertainty in them, control programmes and preventive measures cannot be designed optimally nor evaluated appropriately.
Such research involves the development of new methods due to the complexities of infectious disease systems – but always driven by the need to answer practical questions:
Will culling badgers reduce the incidence of bovine TB in cattle? How might cattle vaccination reduce disease risk within a herd?
How can modified mosquitoes help reduce the risks of dengue?
What sort of culling will minimize the impact of foot and mouth disease (FMD)?
What measures will reduce human exposure to BSE infectivity in meat?
Through this research, I have provided quantitative scientific advice to government on bovine TB, TSEs (including BSE, vCJD and scrapie) and FMD. In this context I served as the deputy chairman of the Independent Scientific Group on Cattle TB (1998-2007) advising government on research and overseeing a large randomized trial of badger culling strategies.
In addition to providing science-based policy advice, I am interested in promoting the public understanding of epidemiology and statistics – making the conclusions from important results, such as estimates of past BSE risk, accessible to a wide audience.
Fellows and post-docs working with me: Artemis Koukounari, Pierre Nouvellet and Ana Bento.
Randomised Badger Culling Trial areas. Map of proactively culled (shaded), reactively culled (hatched) and unculled survey-only (open) trial areas of the Randomised Badger Culling Trial. Grey shading indicates parish testing intervals, which give an approximate index of local TB incidence; parishes with the lowest incidence are assigned four yearly testing (white) and parishes with the highest incidence are assigned annual testing (dark grey). [Donnelly CA et al. Positive and negative effects of widespread badger culling on tuberculosis in cattle. Nature 439, 843-846, 2006.]
Imperial College's short course, "Introduction to Mathematical Models of the Epidemiology & Control of Infectious Diseases", is aimed at public health professionals, policy-makers and researchers who want to learn about the basic principles and practical applications of mathematical modelling and modern quantitative methods. For more information please see http://www.InfectiousDiseaseModels.org.
- Donnelly CA; Woodroffe R. (31 May 2012). Reduce uncertainty in UK badger culling. NATURE. 485:582-582. Author weblink.
- Yu H; Cauchemez S; Donnelly CA; Zhou L; Feng L; Xiang N; Zheng J; Ye M; et alHuai Y; Liao Q; Peng Z; Feng Y; Jiang H; Yang W; Wang Y; Ferguson NM; Feng Z. (1 May 2012). Transmission Dynamics, Border Entry Screening, and School Holidays during the 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Pandemic, China. EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES. 18:758-766. Author weblink DOI.
- Woodroffe R; Donnelly CA. (1 Dec 2011). Risk of contact between endangered African wild dogs Lycaon pictus and domestic dogs: opportunities for pathogen transmission. JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY. 48:1345-1354. Author weblink DOI.
- Harris AF; Nimmo D; McKemey AR; Kelly N; Scaife S; Donnelly CA; Beech C; Petrie WD; et alAlphey L. (1 Nov 2011). Field performance of engineered male mosquitoes. NATURE BIOTECHNOLOGY. 29:1034-U109. Author weblink DOI.
- Simmons GS; McKemey AR; Morrison NI; O'Connell S; Tabashnik BE; Claus J; Fu G; Tang G; et alSledge M; Walker AS; Phillips CE; Miller ED; Rose RI; Staten RT; Donnelly CA; Alphey L. (13 Sep 2011). Field Performance of a Genetically Engineered Strain of Pink Bollworm. PLOS ONE. 6. Author weblink DOI.
- Vial F; Donnelly CA. (23 Feb 2012). Localized reactive badger culling increases risk of bovine tuberculosis in nearby cattle herds. Biol Lett. 8:50-53. Author weblink DOI.
- Van Kerkhove MD; Vandemaele KAH; Shinde V; Jaramillo-Gutierrez G; Koukounari A; Donnelly CA; Carlino LO; Owen R; et alPaterson B; Pelletier L; Vachon J; Gonzalez C; Yu H; Feng Z; Chuang SK; Au A; Buda S; Krause G; Haas W; Bonmarin I; Taniguichi K; Nakajima K; Shobayashi T; Takayama Y; Sunagawa T; Heraud JM; Orelle A; Palacios E; van der Sande MAB; Wielders CCHL; Hunt D; Cutter J; Lee VJ; Thomas J; Santa-Olalla P; Sierra-Moros MJ; Hanshaoworakul W; Ungchusak K; Pebody R; Jain S; Mounts AW. (1 Jul 2011). Risk Factors for Severe Outcomes following 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Infection: A Global Pooled Analysis. PLOS MEDICINE. 8. Author weblink DOI.
- Truscott J; Fraser C; Cauchemez S; Meeyai A; Hinsley W; Donnelly CA; Ghani A; Ferguson N. (7 Feb 2012). Essential epidemiological mechanisms underpinning the transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza. J R Soc Interface. 9:304-312. Author weblink DOI.
- O'Reilly KM; Chauvin C; Aylward RB; Maher C; Okiror S; Wolff C; Nshmirimana D; Donnelly CA; et alGrassly NC. (2011). A statistical model of the international spread of wild poliovirus in Africa used to predict and prevent outbreaks. PLoS Med. 8:1-10. Author weblink DOI Open Access copy.
- Vial F; Johnston WT; Donnelly CA. (2011). Local cattle and badger populations affect the risk of confirmed tuberculosis in British cattle herds. PLoS One. 6:e18058. Author weblink DOI.
- Donnelly CA; Finelli L; Cauchemez S; Olsen SJ; Doshi S; Jackson ML; Kennedy ED; Kamimoto L; et alMarchbanks TL; Morgan OW; Patel M; Swerdlow DL; Ferguson NM. (1 Jan 2011). Serial Intervals and the Temporal Distribution of Secondary Infections within Households of 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1): Implications for Influenza Control Recommendations. CLINICAL INFECTIOUS DISEASES. 52:S123-S130. Author weblink DOI.
- Hoen AG; Buckeridge DL; Chan EH; Freifeld CC; Keller M; Charland K; Donnelly CA; Brownstein JS. (1 Sep 2010). Characteristics of US public schools with reported cases of novel influenza A (H1N1). INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES. 14:E6-E8. Author weblink DOI.
- Jenkins HE; Aylward RB; Gasasira A; Donnelly CA; Mwanza M; Corander J; Garnier S; Chauvin C; et alAbanida E; Pate MA; Adu F; Baba M; Grassly NC. (24 Jun 2010). Implications of a circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus in Nigeria. N Engl J Med. 362:2360-2369. Author weblink DOI.
- Lau EHY; Hsiung CA; Cowling BJ; Chen C-H; Ho L-M; Tsang T; Chang C-W; Donnelly CA; et alLeung GM. (6 Mar 2010). A comparative epidemiologic analysis of SARS in Hong Kong, Beijing and Taiwan. BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES. 10. Author weblink DOI.
- Lu DB; Wang TP; Rudge JW; Donnelly CA; Fang GR; Webster JP. (Jan 2010). Contrasting reservoirs for Schistosoma japonicum between marshland and hilly regions in Anhui, China--a two-year longitudinal parasitological survey. Parasitology. 137:99-110. Author weblink DOI.
- Hollingsworth TD; Laeyendecker O; Shirreff G; Donnelly CA; Serwadda D; Wawer MJ; Kiwanuka N; Nalugoda F; et alCollinson-Streng A; Ssempijja V; Hanage WP; Quinn TC; Gray RH; Fraser C. (May 2010). HIV-1 transmitting couples have similar viral load set-points in Rakai, Uganda. PLoS Pathog. 6:e1000876. Author weblink DOI Open Access copy.
- Donnelly CA; Hone J. (Mar 2010). Is there an association between levels of bovine tuberculosis in cattle herds and badgers?. Statistical Communications in Infectious Diseases. 2. Publisher weblink DOI.
- Jenkins HE; Woodroffe R; Donnelly CA. (2010). The duration of the effects of repeated widespread badger culling on cattle tuberculosis following the cessation of culling. PLoS One. 5:e9090. Author weblink DOI.
- Koukounari A; Donnelly CA; Sacko M; Keita AD; Landouré A; Dembelé R; Bosqué-Oliva E; Gabrielli AF; et alGouvras A; Traoré M; Fenwick A; Webster JP. (2010). The impact of single versus mixed schistosome species infections on liver, spleen and bladder morbidity within Malian children pre- and post-praziquantel treatment. BMC Infect Dis. 10:227. Author weblink DOI.
- Lu DB; Rudge JW; Wang TP; Donnelly CA; Fang GR; Webster JP. (2010). Transmission of Schistosoma japonicum in marshland and hilly regions of China: parasite population genetic and sibship structure. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 4:e781. Author weblink DOI.
- Cauchemez S; Donnelly CA; Reed C; Ghani AC; Fraser C; Kent CK; Finelli L; Ferguson NM. (31 Dec 2009). Household transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in the United States. N Engl J Med. 361:2619-2627. Author weblink DOI.
- Lu D-B; Wang T-P; Rudge JW; Donnelly CA; Fang G-R; Webster JP. (1 Dec 2009). Evolution in a multi-host parasite: Chronobiological circadian rhythm and population genetics of Schistosoma japonicum cercariae indicates contrasting definitive host reservoirs by habitat. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL FOR PARASITOLOGY. 39:1581-1588. Author weblink DOI.
- Morrison NI; Segura DF; Stainton KC; Fu G; Donnelly CA; Alphey LS. (1 Nov 2009). Sexual competitiveness of a transgenic sexing strain of the Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata. ENTOMOLOGIA EXPERIMENTALIS ET APPLICATA. 133:146-153. Author weblink DOI.
- Garske T; Legrand J; Donnelly CA; Ward H; Cauchemez S; Fraser C; Ferguson NM; Ghani AC. (14 Jul 2009). Assessing the severity of the novel influenza A/H1N1 pandemic. BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL. 339. Author weblink DOI.
- Fraser C; Donnelly CA; Cauchemez S; Hanage WP; Van Kerkhove MD; Hollingsworth TD; Griffin J; Baggaley RF; et alJenkins HE; Lyons EJ; Jombart T; Hinsley WR; Grassly NC; Balloux F; Ghani AC; Ferguson NM; Rambaut A; Pybus OG; Lopez-Gatell H; Alpuche-Aranda CM; Bojorquez Chapela I; Palacios Zavala E; Espejo Guevara DM; Checchi F; Garcia E; Hugonnet S; Roth C. (19 Jun 2009). Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A (H1N1): Early Findings. SCIENCE. 324:1557-1561. Author weblink DOI.
- Gambhir M; Basanez M-G; Burton MJ; Solomon AW; Bailey RL; Holland MJ; Blake IM; Donnelly CA; et alJabr I; Mabey DC; Grassly NC. (1 Jun 2009). The Development of an Age-Structured Model for Trachoma Transmission Dynamics, Pathogenesis and Control. PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES. 3. Author weblink DOI.
- Woodroffe R; Donnelly CA; Wei G; Cox DR; Bourne FJ; Burke T; Butlin RK; Cheeseman CL; et alGettinby G; Gilks P; Hedges S; Jenkins HE; Johnston WT; McInerney JP; Morrison WI; Pope LC. (1 Jul 2009). Social group size affects Mycobacterium bovis infection in European badgers (Meles meles). JOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY. 78:818-827. Author weblink DOI.
- Koukounari A; Webster JP; Donnelly CA; Bray BC; Naples J; Bosompem K; Shiff C. (Mar 2009). Sensitivities and specificities of diagnostic tests and infection prevalence of Schistosoma haematobium estimated from data on adults in villages northwest of Accra, Ghana. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 80:435-441. Author weblink.
- Woodroffe R; Donnelly CA; Cox DR; Gilks P; Jenkins HE; Johnston WT; Le Fevre AM; Gourne FJ; et alCheeseman CL; Clifton-Hadley RS; Gettinby G; Hewinson RG; McInerney JP; Mitchel AP; Morrison WI; Watkins GH. (1 Jan 2009). BOVINE TUBERCULOSIS IN CATTLE AND BADGERS IN LOCALIZED CULLING AREAS. JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE DISEASES. 45:128-143. Author weblink.
- Bouma A; Claassen I; Natih K; Klinkenberg D; Donnelly CA; Koch G; van Boven M. (1 Jan 2009). Estimation of Transmission Parameters of H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus in Chickens. PLOS PATHOGENS. 5. Author weblink DOI.
- Jenkins HE; Aylward RB; Gasasira A; Donnelly CA; Abanida EA; Koleosho-Adelekan T; Grassly NC. (16 Oct 2008). Effectiveness of immunization against paralytic poliomyelitis in Nigeria. NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE. 359:1666-U111. Author weblink DOI.
- Jenkins HE; Woodroffe R; Donnelly CA; Cox DR; Johnston WT; Bourne FJ; Cheeseman CL; Clifton-Hadley RS; et alGettinby G; Gilks P; Hewinson RG; McInerney JP; Morrison WI. (1 Oct 2007). Effects of culling on spatial associations of Mycobacterium bovis infections in badgers and cattle. JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY. 44:897-908. Author weblink DOI.
- Donnelly CA; Wei G; Johnston WT; Cox DR; Woodroffe R; Bourne FJ; Cheeseman CL; Clifton-Hadley RS; et alGettinby G; Gilks P; Jenkins HE; Le Fevre AM; McInerney JP; Morrison WI. (Jul 2007). Impacts of widespread badger culling on cattle tuberculosis: concluding analyses from a large-scale field trial. Int J Infect Dis. 11:300-308. Author weblink DOI.
- Donnelly CA; Woodroffe R; Cox DR; Bourne FJ; Cheeseman CL; Clifton-Hadley RS; Wei G; Gettinby G; et alGilks P; Jenkins H; Johnston WT; Le Fevre AM; McInerney JP; Morrison WI. (16 Feb 2006). Positive and negative effects of widespread badger culling on tuberculosis in cattle. Nature. 439:843-846. Author weblink DOI.
- Donnelly CA; Fisher MC; Fraser C; Ghani AC; Riley S; Ferguson NM; Anderson RM. (Nov 2004). Epidemiological and genetic analysis of severe acute respiratory syndrome. Lancet Infect Dis. 4:672-683. Author weblink DOI.
- Dawkins MS; Donnelly CA; Jones TA. (22 Jan 2004). Chicken welfare is influenced more by housing conditions than by stocking density. Nature. 427:342-344. Author weblink DOI.
- Donnelly CA; Woodroffe R; Cox DR; Bourne J; Gettinby G; Le Fevre AM; McInerney JP; Morrison WI. (18 Dec 2003). Impact of localized badger culling on tuberculosis incidence in British cattle. NATURE. 426:834-837. Author weblink DOI.
- Riley S; Fraser C; Donnelly CA; Ghani AC; Abu-Raddad LJ; Hedley AJ; Leung GM; Ho LM; et alLam TH; Thach TQ; Chau P; Chan KP; Leung PY; Tsang T; Ho W; Lee KH; Lau EMC; Ferguson NM; Anderson RM. (20 Jun 2003). Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: Impact of public health interventions. SCIENCE. 300:1961-1966. Author weblink DOI.
- Donnelly CA; Ghani AC; Leung GM; Hedley AJ; Fraser C; Riley S; Abu-Raddad LJ; Ho LM; et alThach TQ; Chau P; Chan KP; Lam TH; Tse LY; Tsang T; Liu SH; Kong JH; Lau EM; Ferguson NM; Anderson RM. (24 May 2003). Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong. Lancet. 361:1761-1766. Author weblink DOI.
- Ferguson NM; Donnelly CA; Anderson RM. (4 Oct 2001). Transmission intensity and impact of control policies on the foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain. Nature. 413:542-548. Author weblink DOI.
- Ferguson NM; Donnelly CA; Anderson RM. (11 May 2001). The foot-and-mouth epidemic in Great Britain: pattern of spread and impact of interventions. Science. 292:1155-1160. Author weblink DOI.
- Donnelly CA. (14 Dec 2000). Likely size of the French BSE epidemic. Nature. 408:787-788. Author weblink DOI.