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Professor Christl A Donnelly

Professor of Statistical Epidemiology
School of Public Health

UG7
Norfolk Place
St Mary's Campus

Email: Email address for Professor Christl A Donnelly

Professor Christl A Donnelly

Statistical Epidemiology

Having worked on a variety of diseases, my research is probably best described methodologically as synthesizing statistical and biomathematical methods for the analysis of epidemiological patterns of infectious diseases. This approach combines robust parameter estimation and hypothesis testing with the insights provided by dynamical models of disease transmission, host demography and interventions. My research programme aims to improve our understanding of (and ability to predict) the effect of different interventions on infectious agent transmission dynamics and population structure - and thereby better inform the design of control strategies. Without good estimates of epidemiological parameters and knowledge of the associated uncertainty in them, control programmes and preventive measures cannot be designed optimally nor evaluated appropriately.

Such research involves the development of new methods due to the complexities of infectious disease systems – but always driven by the need to answer practical questions:

What sort of culling will minimize the impact of foot and mouth disease (FMD)?
What measures will reduce human exposure to BSE infectivity in meat?
Will culling badgers reduce the incidence of bovine TB in cattle?

Through this research, I provide quantitative scientific advice to government on FMD, TSEs (including BSE, vCJD and scrapie) and bovine TB. In this context I served as the deputy chairman of the Independent Scientific Group on Cattle TB advising government on research and overseeing a large randomized trial of badger culling strategies. In addition to providing science-based policy advice, I am interested in promoting the public understanding of epidemiology and statistics – making the conclusions from important results, such as estimates of past BSE risk, accessible to a wide audience.

RBCT map (small)

Randomised Badger Culling Trial areas. Map of proactively culled (shaded), reactively culled (hatched) and unculled survey-only (open) trial areas of the Randomised Badger Culling Trial. Grey shading indicates parish testing intervals, which give an approximate index of local TB incidence; parishes with the lowest incidence are assigned four yearly testing (white) and parishes with the highest incidence are assigned annual testing (dark grey). [Donnelly CA et al. Positive and negative effects of widespread badger culling on tuberculosis in cattle. Nature 439, 843-846, 2006.]

Imperial College's short course, "Introduction to Mathematical Models of the Epidemiology & Control of Infectious Diseases", is aimed at public health professionals, policy-makers and researchers who want to learn about the basic principles and practical applications of mathematical modelling and modern quantitative methods. For more information please see http://www.InfectiousDiseaseModels.org.

Selected Publications

Journals

O'Reilly KM; Chauvin C; Aylward RB; Maher C; Okiror S; Wolff C; Nshmirimana D; Donnelly CA; et alGrassly NC. (2011). A statistical model of the international spread of wild poliovirus in Africa used to predict and prevent outbreaks. PLoS Med. 8:1-10. Author weblink DOI Open Access copy.
Simmons GS; McKemey AR; Morrison NI; O'Connell S; Tabashnik BE; Claus J; Fu GL; Tang GL; et alSledge M; Walker AS; Phillips CE; Miller ED; Rose RI; Staten RT; Donnelly CA; Alphey L. (13 Sep 2011). Field Performance of a Genetically Engineered Strain of Pink Bollworm. PLOS ONE. 6. DOI.
Van Kerkhove MD; Vandemaele KAH; Shinde V; Jaramillo-Gutierrez G; Koukounari A; Donnelly CA; Carlino LO; Owen R; et alPaterson B; Pelletier L; Vachon J; Gonzalez C; Yu HJ; Feng ZJ; Chuang SK; Au A; Buda S; Krause G; Haas W; Bonmarin I; Taniguichi K; Nakajima K; Shobayashi T; Takayama Y; Sunagawa T; Heraud JM; Orelle A; Palacios E; van der Sande MAB; Wielders CCHL; Hunt D; Cutter J; Lee VJ; Thomas J; Santa-Olalla P; Sierra-Moros MJ; Hanshaoworakul W; Ungchusak K; Pebody R; Jain S; Mounts AW; WHO Working Grp Risk Factors Sever. (Jul 2011). Risk Factors for Severe Outcomes following 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Infection: A Global Pooled Analysis. PLOS MED. 8. DOI.
Vial F; Donnelly CA. (23 Feb 2012). Localized reactive badger culling increases risk of bovine tuberculosis in nearby cattle herds. Biol Lett. 8:50-53. DOI.
Truscott J; Fraser C; Cauchemez S; Meeyai A; Hinsley W; Donnelly CA; Ghani A; Ferguson N. (7 Feb 2012). Essential epidemiological mechanisms underpinning the transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza. J R Soc Interface. 9:304-312. DOI.
Vial F; Johnston WT; Donnelly CA. (2011). Local cattle and badger populations affect the risk of confirmed tuberculosis in British cattle herds. PLoS One. 6:e18058. DOI.
Donnelly CA; Finelli L; Cauchemez S; Olsen SJ; Doshi S; Jackson ML; Kennedy ED; Kamimoto L; et alMarchbanks TL; Morgan OW; Patel M; Swerdlow DL; Ferguson NM; pH1N1 Household Invest Working Grp. (1 Jan 2011). Serial Intervals and the Temporal Distribution of Secondary Infections within Households of 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1): Implications for Influenza Control Recommendations. CLIN INFECT DIS. 52:S123-S130. DOI.
Hoen AG; Buckeridge DL; Chan EH; Freifeld CC; Keller M; Charland K; Donnelly CA; Brownstein JS. (Sep 2010). Characteristics of US public schools with reported cases of novel influenza A (H1N1). INT J INFECT DIS. 14:E6-E8. DOI.
Jenkins HE; Aylward RB; Gasasira A; Donnelly CA; Mwanza M; Corander J; Garnier S; Chauvin C; et alAbanida E; Pate MA; Adu F; Baba M; Grassly NC. (24 Jun 2010). Implications of a circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus in Nigeria. N Engl J Med. 362:2360-2369. DOI.
Lau EHY; Hsiung CA; Cowling BJ; Chen CH; Ho LM; Tsang T; Chang CW; Donnelly CA; et alLeung GM. (6 Mar 2010). A comparative epidemiologic analysis of SARS in Hong Kong, Beijing and Taiwan. BMC INFECT DIS. 10. DOI.
Lu DB; Wang TP; Rudge JW; Donnelly CA; Fang GR; Webster JP. (Jan 2010). Contrasting reservoirs for Schistosoma japonicum between marshland and hilly regions in Anhui, China--a two-year longitudinal parasitological survey. Parasitology. 137:99-110. DOI.
Jenkins HE; Woodroffe R; Donnelly CA. (2010). The duration of the effects of repeated widespread badger culling on cattle tuberculosis following the cessation of culling. PLoS One. 5:e9090. DOI.
Hollingsworth TD; Laeyendecker O; Shirreff G; Donnelly CA; Serwadda D; Wawer MJ; Kiwanuka N; Nalugoda F; et alCollinson-Streng A; Ssempijja V; Hanage WP; Quinn TC; Gray RH; Fraser C. (May 2010). HIV-1 transmitting couples have similar viral load set-points in Rakai, Uganda. PLoS Pathog. 6:e1000876. DOI Open Access copy.
Lu DB; Rudge JW; Wang TP; Donnelly CA; Fang GR; Webster JP. (2010). Transmission of Schistosoma japonicum in marshland and hilly regions of China: parasite population genetic and sibship structure. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 4:e781. DOI.
Koukounari A; Donnelly CA; Sacko M; Keita AD; Landouré A; Dembelé R; Bosqué-Oliva E; Gabrielli AF; et alGouvras A; Traoré M; Fenwick A; Webster JP. (2010). The impact of single versus mixed schistosome species infections on liver, spleen and bladder morbidity within Malian children pre- and post-praziquantel treatment. BMC Infect Dis. 10:227. DOI.
Donnelly CA; Hone J. (Mar 2010). Is there an association between levels of bovine tuberculosis in cattle herds and badgers?. Statistical Communications in Infectious Diseases. 2. Publisher weblink DOI.
Cauchemez S; Donnelly CA; Reed C; Ghani AC; Fraser C; Kent CK; Finelli L; Ferguson NM. (31 Dec 2009). Household transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in the United States. N Engl J Med. 361:2619-2627. DOI.
Lu DB; Wang TP; Rudge JW; Donnelly CA; Fang GR; Webster JP. (Dec 2009). Evolution in a multi-host parasite: Chronobiological circadian rhythm and population genetics of Schistosoma japonicum cercariae indicates contrasting definitive host reservoirs by habitat. INT J PARASITOL. 39:1581-1588. DOI.
Morrison NI; Segura DF; Stainton KC; Fu G; Donnelly CA; Alphey LS. (Nov 2009). Sexual competitiveness of a transgenic sexing strain of the Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata. ENTOMOL EXP APPL. 133:146-153. DOI.
Garske T; Legrand J; Donnelly CA; Ward H; Cauchemez S; Fraser C; Ferguson NM; Ghani AC. (14 Jul 2009). Assessing the severity of the novel influenza A/H1N1 pandemic. BRIT MED J. 339. DOI.
Fraser C; Donnelly CA; Cauchemez S; Hanage WP; Van Kerkhove MD; Hollingsworth TD; Griffin J; Baggaley RF; et alJenkins HE; Lyons EJ; Jombart T; Hinsley WR; Grassly NC; Balloux F; Ghani AC; Ferguson NM; Rambaut A; Pybus OG; Lopez-Gatell H; Alpuche-Aranda CM; Chapela IB; Zavala EP; Guevara DME; Checchi F; Garcia E; Hugonnet S; Roth C; WHO Rapid Pandemic Assessment Coll. (19 Jun 2009). Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A (H1N1): Early Findings. SCIENCE. 324:1557-1561. DOI.
Gambhir M; Basanez MG; Burton MJ; Solomon AW; Bailey RL; Holland MJ; Blake IM; Donnelly CA; et alJabr I; Mabey DC; Grassly NC. (Jun 2009). The Development of an Age-Structured Model for Trachoma Transmission Dynamics, Pathogenesis and Control. PLOS NEGLECT TROP D. 3. DOI.
Woodroffe R; Donnelly CA; Wei G; Cox DR; Bourne FJ; Burke T; Butlin RK; Cheeseman CL; et alGettinby G; Gilks P; Hedges S; Jenkins HE; Johnston WT; McInerney JP; Morrison WI; Pope LC. (Jul 2009). Social group size affects Mycobacterium bovis infection in European badgers (Meles meles). J ANIM ECOL. 78:818-827. DOI.
Koukounari A; Webster JP; Donnelly CA; Bray BC; Naples J; Bosompem K; Shiff C. (Mar 2009). Sensitivities and specificities of diagnostic tests and infection prevalence of Schistosoma haematobium estimated from data on adults in villages northwest of Accra, Ghana. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 80:435-441.
Bouma A; Claassen I; Natih K; Klinkenberg D; Donnelly CA; Koch G; van Boven M. (Jan 2009). Estimation of Transmission Parameters of H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus in Chickens. PLOS PATHOG. 5. DOI.
Woodroffe R; Donnelly CA; Cox DR; Gilks P; Jenkins HE; Johnston WT; Le Fevre AM; Gourne FJ; et alCheeseman CL; Clifton-Hadley RS; Gettinby G; Hewinson RG; McInerney JP; Mitchel AP; Morrison WI; Watkins GH. (Jan 2009). BOVINE TUBERCULOSIS IN CATTLE AND BADGERS IN LOCALIZED CULLING AREAS. J WILDLIFE DIS. 45:128-143.
Jenkins HE; Aylward RB; Gasasira A; Donnelly CA; Abanida EA; Koleosho-Adelekan T; Grassly NC. (16 Oct 2008). Effectiveness of immunization against paralytic poliomyelitis in Nigeria. NEW ENGL J MED. 359:1666-U111.
Jenkins HE; Woodroffe R; Donnelly CA; Cox DR; Johnston WT; Bourne FJ; Cheeseman CL; Clifton-Hadley RS; et alGettinby G; Gilks P; Hewinson RG; McInerney JP; Morrison WI. (Oct 2007). Effects of culling on spatial associations of Mycobacterium bovis infections in badgers and cattle. J APPL ECOL. 44:897-908. DOI.
Donnelly CA; Wei G; Johnston WT; Cox DR; Woodroffe R; Bourne FJ; Cheeseman CL; Clifton-Hadley RS; et alGettinby G; Gilks P; Jenkins HE; Le Fevre AM; McInerney JP; Morrison WI. (Jul 2007). Impacts of widespread badger culling on cattle tuberculosis: concluding analyses from a large-scale field trial. Int J Infect Dis. 11:300-308. DOI.
Donnelly CA; Woodroffe R; Cox DR; Bourne FJ; Cheeseman CL; Clifton-Hadley RS; Wei G; Gettinby G; et alGilks P; Jenkins H; Johnston WT; Le Fevre AM; McInerney JP; Morrison WI. (16 Feb 2006). Positive and negative effects of widespread badger culling on tuberculosis in cattle. Nature. 439:843-846. DOI.
Donnelly CA; Fisher MC; Fraser C; Ghani AC; Riley S; Ferguson NM; Anderson RM. (Nov 2004). Epidemiological and genetic analysis of severe acute respiratory syndrome. Lancet Infect Dis. 4:672-683. DOI.
Dawkins MS; Donnelly CA; Jones TA. (22 Jan 2004). Chicken welfare is influenced more by housing conditions than by stocking density. Nature. 427:342-344. DOI.
Donnelly CA; Woodroffe R; Cox DR; Bourne J; Gettinby G; Le Fevre AM; McInerney JP; Morrison WI. (18 Dec 2003). Impact of localized badger culling on tuberculosis incidence in British cattle. NATURE. 426:834-837. DOI.
Riley S; Fraser C; Donnelly CA; Ghani AC; Abu-Raddad LJ; Hedley AJ; Leung GM; Ho LM; et alLam TH; Thach TQ; Chau P; Chan KP; Leung PY; Tsang T; Ho W; Lee KH; Lau EMC; Ferguson NM; Anderson RM. (20 Jun 2003). Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: Impact of public health interventions. SCIENCE. 300:1961-1966. DOI.
Donnelly CA; Ghani AC; Leung GM; Hedley AJ; Fraser C; Riley S; Abu-Raddad LJ; Ho LM; et alThach TQ; Chau P; Chan KP; Lam TH; Tse LY; Tsang T; Liu SH; Kong JH; Lau EM; Ferguson NM; Anderson RM. (24 May 2003). Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong. Lancet. 361:1761-1766. DOI.
Ferguson NM; Donnelly CA; Anderson RM. (4 Oct 2001). Transmission intensity and impact of control policies on the foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain. Nature. 413:542-548. DOI.
Ferguson NM; Donnelly CA; Anderson RM. (11 May 2001). The foot-and-mouth epidemic in Great Britain: pattern of spread and impact of interventions. Science. 292:1155-1160. DOI.
Donnelly CA. (14 Dec 2000). Likely size of the French BSE epidemic. Nature. 408:787-788. DOI.

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