Professor Christophe Fraser

Publications


Journals

  • Shirreff G; Pellis L; Laeyendecker O; Fraser C. (Oct 2011). Transmission selects for HIV-1 strains of intermediate virulence: a modelling approach. PLoS Comput Biol. 7:e1002185. DOI.
  • Fraser C; Cummings DAT; Klinkenberg D; Burke DS; Ferguson NM. (1 Sep 2011). Influenza Transmission in Households During the 1918 Pandemic. AM J EPIDEMIOL. 174:505-514. DOI.
  • Opatowski L; Fraser C; Griffin J; de Silva E; Van Kerkhove MD; Lyons EJ; Cauchemez S; Ferguson NM. (Sep 2011). Transmission characteristics of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic: comparison of 8 Southern hemisphere countries. PLoS Pathog. 7:e1002225. DOI.
  • Fraser C; Cummings DA; Klinkenberg D; Burke DS; Ferguson NM. (1 Sep 2011). Influenza transmission in households during the 1918 pandemic. Am J Epidemiol. 174:505-514. DOI.
  • Truscott J; Fraser C; Cauchemez S; Meeyai A; Hinsley W; Donnelly CA; Ghani A; Ferguson N. (7 Feb 2012). Essential epidemiological mechanisms underpinning the transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza. J R Soc Interface. 9:304-312. DOI.
  • Mueller V; Fraser C; Herbeck JT. (Mar 2011). A Strong Case for Viral Genetic Factors in HIV Virulence. VIRUSES-BASEL. 3:204-216. DOI.
  • Lipsitch M; Colijn C; Cohen T; Hanage WP; Fraser C. (Mar 2009). No coexistence for free: neutral null models for multistrain pathogens. Epidemics. 1:2-13. DOI.
  • Croucher NJ; Harris SR; Fraser C; Quail MA; Burton J; van der Linden M; McGee L; von Gottberg A; et alSong JH; Ko KS; Pichon B; Baker S; Parry CM; Lambertsen LM; Shahinas D; Pillai DR; Mitchell TJ; Dougan G; Tomasz A; Klugman KP; Parkhill J; Hanage WP; Bentley SD. (28 Jan 2011). Rapid pneumococcal evolution in response to clinical interventions. Science. 331:430-434. DOI.
  • Pellis L; Ferguson NM; Fraser C. (Oct 2011). Epidemic growth rate and household reproduction number in communities of households, schools and workplaces. J Math Biol. 63:691-734. DOI.
  • Hanage WP; Finkelstein JA; Huang SS; Pelton SI; Stevenson AE; Kleinman K; Hinrichsen VL; Fraser C. (Jun 2010). Evidence that pneumococcal serotype replacement in Massachusetts following conjugate vaccination is now complete. Epidemics. 2:80-84. DOI.
  • Fraser C; Hollingsworth TD. (23 Oct 2010). Interpretation of correlations in setpoint viral load in transmitting couples. AIDS. 24:2596-2597. DOI.
  • Bezemer D; de Wolf F; Boerlijst MC; van Sighem A; Hollingsworth TD; Fraser C. (Jun 2010). 27 years of the HIV epidemic amongst men having sex with men in the Netherlands: An in depth mathematical model-based analysis. Epidemics. 2:66-79. Publisher weblink.
  • Baggaley RF; Fraser C. (Jul 2010). Modelling sexual transmission of HIV: testing the assumptions, validating the predictions. Curr Opin HIV AIDS. 5:269-276. DOI.
  • Van Kerkhove MD; Asikainen T; Becker NG; Bjorge S; Desenclos JC; dos Santos T; Fraser C; Leung GM; et alLipsitch M; Longini IM; McBryde ES; Roth CE; Shay DK; Smith DJ; Wallinga J; White PJ; Ferguson NM; Riley S; WHO Informal Network for Mathematical Modelling for Pandemic Influenza H1N1 2009 (Working Group on Data Needs). (Jun 2010). Studies needed to address public health challenges of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic: insights from modeling. PLoS Med. 7:e1000275. DOI.
  • Hollingsworth TD; Laeyendecker O; Shirreff G; Donnelly CA; Serwadda D; Wawer MJ; Kiwanuka N; Nalugoda F; et alCollinson-Streng A; Ssempijja V; Hanage WP; Quinn TC; Gray RH; Fraser C. (May 2010). HIV-1 transmitting couples have similar viral load set-points in Rakai, Uganda. PLoS Pathog. 6:e1000876. DOI Open Access copy.
  • Cauchemez S; Donnelly CA; Reed C; Ghani AC; Fraser C; Kent CK; Finelli L; Ferguson NM. (31 Dec 2009). Household transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in the United States. N Engl J Med. 361:2619-2627. DOI.
  • Truscott J; Fraser C; Hinsley W; Cauchemez S; Donnelly C; Ghani A; Ferguson N. (2009). Quantifying the transmissibility of human influenza and its seasonal variation in temperate regions. PLoS Curr. 1:RRN1125.
  • Ghani AC; Baguelin M; Griffin J; Flasche S; Pebody R; van Hoek AJ; Cauchemez S; Hall IM; et alDonnelly C; Robertson C; White MT; Barrass I; Fraser C; Bermingham A; Truscott J; Ellis J; Jenkins H; Kafatos G; Garske T; Harris R; McMenamin J; Hawkins C; Phin N; Charlett A; Zambon M; Edmonds WJ; Catchpole M; Leach S; White P; Ferguson NM; Cooper B. (2009). The Early Transmission Dynamics of H1N1pdm Influenza in the United Kingdom. PLoS Curr. 1:RRN1130.
  • Colijn C; Cohen T; Fraser C; Hanage W; Goldstein E; Givon-Lavi N; Dagan R; Lipsitch M. (6 Jun 2010). What is the mechanism for persistent coexistence of drug-susceptible and drug-resistant strains of Streptococcus pneumoniae?. J R Soc Interface. 7:905-919. DOI.
  • Tang J; Hanage WP; Fraser C; Corander J. (Aug 2009). Identifying Currents in the Gene Pool for Bacterial Populations Using an Integrative Approach. PLOS COMPUT BIOL. 5. DOI.
  • Pellis L; Ferguson NM; Fraser C. (6 Nov 2009). Threshold parameters for a model of epidemic spread among households and workplaces. J R SOC INTERFACE. 6:979-987. DOI.
  • Gras L; Jurriaans S; Bakker M; van Sighem A; Bezemer D; Fraser C; Lange J; Prins JM; et alBerkhout B; de Wolf F; ATHENA National Observational Cohort Study. (2009). Viral load levels measured at set-point have risen over the last decade of the HIV epidemic in the Netherlands. PLoS One. 4:e7365. DOI.
  • Fraser C; Donnelly CA; Cauchemez S; Hanage WP; Van Kerkhove MD; Hollingsworth TD; Griffin J; Baggaley RF; et alJenkins HE; Lyons EJ; Jombart T; Hinsley WR; Grassly NC; Balloux F; Ghani AC; Rambaut A; Ferguson NM. (28 Aug 2009). Influenza: Making Privileged Data Public Response. SCIENCE. 325:1072-1073.
  • Garske T; Legrand J; Donnelly CA; Ward H; Cauchemez S; Fraser C; Ferguson NM; Ghani AC. (14 Jul 2009). Assessing the severity of the novel influenza A/H1N1 pandemic. BRIT MED J. 339. DOI.
  • Goldstein E; Paur K; Fraser C; Kenah E; Wallinga J; Lipsitch M. (Sep 2009). Reproductive numbers, epidemic spread and control in a community of households. Math Biosci. 221:11-25. DOI.
  • Fraser C; Donnelly CA; Cauchemez S; Hanage WP; Van Kerkhove MD; Hollingsworth TD; Griffin J; Baggaley RF; et alJenkins HE; Lyons EJ; Jombart T; Hinsley WR; Grassly NC; Balloux F; Ghani AC; Ferguson NM; Rambaut A; Pybus OG; Lopez-Gatell H; Alpuche-Aranda CM; Chapela IB; Zavala EP; Guevara DME; Checchi F; Garcia E; Hugonnet S; Roth C; WHO Rapid Pandemic Assessment Coll. (19 Jun 2009). Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A (H1N1): Early Findings. SCIENCE. 324:1557-1561. DOI.
  • Hanage WP; Fraser C; Tang J; Connor TR; Corander J. (12 Jun 2009). Hyper-Recombination, Diversity, and Antibiotic Resistance in Pneumococcus. SCIENCE. 324:1454-1457. DOI.
  • Baggaley RF; Griffin JT; Chapman R; Hollingsworth TD; Nagot N; Delany S; Mayaud P; de Wolf F; et alFraser C; Ghani AC; Weiss HA. (15 May 2009). Estimating the public health impact of the effect of herpes simplex virus suppressive therapy on plasma HIV-1 viral load. AIDS. 23:1005-1013. DOI.
  • Fraser C; Alm EJ; Polz MF; Spratt BG; Hanage WP. (6 Feb 2009). The bacterial species challenge: making sense of genetic and ecological diversity. Science. 323:741-746. DOI.
  • Pellis L; Ferguson NM; Fraser C. (Nov 2008). The relationship between real-time and discrete-generation models of epidemic spread. MATH BIOSCI. 216:63-70. DOI.
  • Hollingsworth TD; Anderson RM; Fraser C. (1 Sep 2008). HIV-1 transmission, by stage of infection. J Infect Dis. 198:687-693. DOI Open Access copy.
  • Bezemer D; de Wolf F; Boerlijst MC; van Sighem A; Hollingsworth TD; Prins M; Geskus RB; Gras L; et alCoutinho RA; Fraser C. (31 May 2008). A resurgent HIV-1 epidemic among men who have sex with men in the era of potent antiretroviral therapy. AIDS. 22:1071-1077.
  • Grassly NC; Fraser C. (Jun 2008). Mathematical models of infectious disease transmission. NAT REV MICROBIOL. 6:477-487. DOI.
  • Halloran ME; Ferguson NM; Eubank S; Longini IM; Cummings DAT; Lewis B; Xu SF; Fraser C; et alVullikanti A; Germann TC; Wagener D; Beckman R; Kadau K; Barrett C; Macken CA; Burke DS; Cooley P. (25 Mar 2008). Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States. P NATL ACAD SCI USA. 105:4639-4644.
  • Fraser C; Hollingsworth TD; Chapman R; de Wolf F; Hanage WP. (30 Oct 2007). Variation in HIV-1 set-point viral load: epidemiological analysis and an evolutionary hypothesis. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 104:17441-17446. DOI.
  • Fraser C; Hollingsworth TD; Chapman R; de Wolf F; Hanage WP. (2007). Variation in HIV-1 set-point viral load: epidemiological analysis and an evolutionary hypothesis. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. in press.
  • Fraser C. (2007). Estimating individual and household reproduction numbers in an emerging epidemic. PLoS One. 2:e758. DOI.
  • Fraser C. (Jun 2007). Influenza pandemic vaccines: Spread them thin?. PLOS MED. 4:977-979. DOI.
  • Fraser C; Tomassini JE; Xi LX; Golm G; Watson M; Giuliano AR; Barr E; Ault KA. (22 May 2007). Modeling the long-term antibody response of a human papillomavirus (HPV) virus-like particle (VLP) type 16 prophylactic vaccine. VACCINE. 25:4324-4333. DOI.
  • Gras L; Kesselring AM; Griffin JT; van Sighem AI; Fraser C; Ghani AC; Miedema F; Reiss P; et alLange JMA; de Wolf F; ATHENA; Natl Observational Cohort Study. (1 Jun 2007). CD4 cell counts of 800 cells/mm(3) or greater after 7 years of highly active antiretroviral therapy are feasible in most patients starting with 350 cells/mm(3) or greater. JAIDS-JOURNAL OF ACQUIRED IMMUNE DEFICIENCY SYNDROMES. 45:183-192.
  • Turner KM; Hanage WP; Fraser C; Connor TR; Spratt BG. (2007). Assessing the reliability of eBURST using simulated populations with known ancestry. BMC Microbiol. 7:30. DOI.
  • Fraser C; Hanage WP; Spratt BG. (26 Jan 2007). Recombination and the nature of bacterial speciation. Science. 315:476-480. DOI.
  • Klinkenberg D; Fraser C; Heesterbeek H. (2006). The effectiveness of contact tracing in emerging epidemics. PLoS One. 1:e12. DOI.
  • Hanage WP; Fraser C; Spratt BG. (29 Nov 2006). Sequences, sequence clusters and bacterial species. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 361:1917-1927. DOI.
  • Hanage WP; Spratt BG; Turner KM; Fraser C. (29 Nov 2006). Modelling bacterial speciation. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 361:2039-2044. DOI.
  • Grassly NC; Fraser C; Wenger J; Deshpande JM; Sutter RW; Heymann DL; Aylward RB. (17 Nov 2006). New strategies for the elimination of polio from India. Science. 314:1150-1153. DOI.
  • Grassly NC; Fraser C. (7 Oct 2006). Seasonal infectious disease epidemiology. P R SOC B. 273:2541-2550. DOI.
  • Wu JT; Riley S; Fraser C; Leung GM. (Sep 2006). Reducing the impact of the next influenza pandemic using household-based public health interventions. PLoS Med. 3:e361. DOI.
  • Ferguson NM; Cummings DA; Fraser C; Cajka JC; Cooley PC; Burke DS. (27 Jul 2006). Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic. Nature. 442:448-452. DOI.
  • Leung GM; Lim WW; Ho LM; Lam TH; Ghani AC; Donnelly CA; Fraser C; Riley S; et alFerguson NM; Anderson RM; Hedley AJ. (Apr 2006). Seroprevalence of IgG antibodies to SARS-coronavirus in asymptomatic or subclinical population groups. EPIDEMIOL INFECT. 134:211-221. DOI.
  • Griffin JT; Fraser C; Gras L; de Wolf F; Ghani AC. (1 Apr 2006). The effect on treatment comparisons of different measurement frequencies in human immunodeficiency virus observational databases. Am J Epidemiol. 163:676-683. DOI.
  • Hanage WP; Fraser C; Spratt BG. (21 Mar 2006). The impact of homologous recombination on the generation of diversity in bacteria. J THEOR BIOL. 239:210-219. DOI.
  • Fidler S; Fraser C; Fox J; Tamm N; Griffin JT; Weber J. (9 Jan 2006). Comparative potency of three antiretroviral therapy regimes in primary HIV infection. AIDS. 20:247-252. DOI.
  • Fraser C. (22 Dec 2005). HIV recombination: what is the impact on antiretroviral therapy?. J ROY SOC INTERFACE. 2:489-503. DOI.
  • Ferguson NM; Donnelly CA; Hooper J; Ghani AC; Fraser C; Bartley LM; Rode RA; Vernazza P; et alLapins D; Mayer SL; Anderson RM. (22 Sep 2005). Adherence to antiretroviral therapy and its impact on clinical outcome in HIV-infected patients. J ROY SOC INTERFACE. 2:349-363. DOI.
  • Ferguson NM; Cummings DA; Cauchemez S; Fraser C; Riley S; Meeyai A; Iamsirithaworn S; Burke DS. (8 Sep 2005). Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature. 437:209-214. DOI.
  • Ghani AC; Donnelly CA; Cox DR; Griffin JT; Fraser C; Lam TH; Ho LM; Chan WS; et alAnderson RM; Hedley AJ; Leung GM. (1 Sep 2005). Methods for estimating the case fatality ratio for a novel, emerging infectious disease. Am J Epidemiol. 162:479-486. DOI.
  • Hanage WP; Fraser C; Spratt BG. (2005). Fuzzy species among recombinogenic bacteria. BMC Biol. 3:6. DOI.
  • Fraser C; Hanage WP; Spratt BG. (8 Feb 2005). Neutral microepidemic evolution of bacterial pathogens. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 102:1968-1973. DOI.
  • Grassly NC; Fraser C; Garnett GP. (27 Jan 2005). Host immunity and synchronized epidemics of syphilis across the United States. Nature. 433:417-421. DOI.
  • Donnelly CA; Fisher MC; Fraser C; Ghani AC; Riley S; Ferguson NM; Anderson RM. (Nov 2004). Epidemiological and genetic analysis of severe acute respiratory syndrome. Lancet Infect Dis. 4:672-683. DOI.
  • Leung GM; Hedley AJ; Ho LM; Chau P; Wong IO; Thach TQ; Ghani AC; Donnelly CA; et alFraser C; Riley S; Ferguson NM; Anderson RM; Tsang T; Leung PY; Wong V; Chan JC; Tsui E; Lo SV; Lam TH. (2 Nov 2004). The epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome in the 2003 Hong Kong epidemic: an analysis of all 1755 patients. Ann Intern Med. 141:662-673.
  • Leung GM; Chung PH; Tsang T; Lim W; Chan SKK; Chau P; Donnelly CA; Ghani AC; et alFraser C; Riley S; Ferguson NM; Anderson RM; Law YI; Mok T; Ng T; Fu A; Leung PY; Peiris JSM; Lam TH; Hedley AJ. (Sep 2004). SARS-CoV antibody prevalence in all Hong Kong patient contacts. EMERG INFECT DIS. 10:1653-1656.
  • Anderson RM; Fraser C; Ghani AC; Donnelly CA; Riley S; Ferguson NM; Leung GM; Lam TH; et alHedley AJ. (29 Jul 2004). Epidemiology, transmission dynamics and control of SARS: the 2002-2003 epidemic. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 359:1091-1105. DOI.
  • Ferguson NM; Fraser C; Donnelly CA; Ghani AC; Anderson RM. (14 May 2004). Public health. Public health risk from the avian H5N1 influenza epidemic. Science. 304:968-969. DOI.
  • Fraser C; Riley S; Anderson RM; Ferguson NM. (20 Apr 2004). Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 101:6146-6151. DOI.
  • Bocharov G; Ludewig B; Bertoletti A; Klenerman P; Junt T; Krebs P; Luzyanina T; Fraser C; et alAnderson RM. (Mar 2004). Underwhelming the immune response: effect of slow virus growth on CD8+-T-lymphocyte responses. J Virol. 78:2247-2254.
  • Garnett GP; Fraser C. (Nov 2003). Let it be sexual--selection, aggregation and distortion used to construct a case against sexual transmission. Int J STD AIDS. 14:782-784. DOI.
  • Riley S; Fraser C; Donnelly CA; Ghani AC; Abu-Raddad LJ; Hedley AJ; Leung GM; Ho LM; et alLam TH; Thach TQ; Chau P; Chan KP; Lo SV; Leung PY; Tsang T; Ho W; Lee KH; Lau EM; Ferguson NM; Anderson RM. (20 Jun 2003). Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: impact of public health interventions. Science. 300:1961-1966. DOI.
  • Donnelly CA; Ghani AC; Leung GM; Hedley AJ; Fraser C; Riley S; Abu-Raddad LJ; Ho LM; et alThach TQ; Chau P; Chan KP; Lam TH; Tse LY; Tsang T; Liu SH; Kong JH; Lau EM; Ferguson NM; Anderson RM. (24 May 2003). Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong. Lancet. 361:1761-1766. DOI.
  • Fraser C; Ferguson NM; De Wolf F; Ghani AC; Garnett GP; Anderson RM. (21 Nov 2002). Antigen-driven T-cell turnover. J Theor Biol. 219:177-192.
  • Ghani AC; Ferguson NM; Fraser C; Donnelly CA; Danner S; Reiss P; Lange J; Goudsmit J; et alAnderson RM; De Wolf F. (1 Jun 2002). Viral replication under combination antiretroviral therapy: a comparison of four different regimens. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 30:167-176.
  • Fraser C; Ferguson NM; Anderson RM. (18 Dec 2001). Quantification of intrinsic residual viral replication in treated HIV-infected patients. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 98:15167-15172. DOI.
  • Fraser C; Ferguson NM; de Wolf F; Anderson RM. (22 Oct 2001). The role of antigenic stimulation and cytotoxic T cell activity in regulating the long-term immunopathogenesis of HIV: mechanisms and clinical implications. Proc Biol Sci. 268:2085-2095. DOI.
  • Ferguson NM; Fraser C; Anderson RM. (Feb 2001). Viral dynamics and anti-viral pharmacodynamics: rethinking in vitro measures of drug potency. Trends Pharmacol Sci. 22:97-100.
  • Fraser C; Ferguson NM; Ghani AC; Prins JM; Lange JM; Goudsmit J; Anderson RM; de Wolf F. (14 Apr 2000). Reduction of the HIV-1-infected T-cell reservoir by immune activation treatment is dose-dependent and restricted by the potency of antiretroviral drugs. AIDS. 14:659-669.
  • Ferguson NM; deWolf F; Ghani AC; Fraser C; Donnelly CA; Reiss P; Lange JM; Danner SA; et alGarnett GP; Goudsmit J; Anderson RM. (21 Dec 1999). Antigen-driven CD4+ T cell and HIV-1 dynamics: residual viral replication under highly active antiretroviral therapy. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 96:15167-15172.
  • Dall'Agata G; Fabbri D; Fraser C; Fre P; Termonia P; Trigiante M. (8 Mar 1999). The Osp(8 vertical bar 4) singleton action from the supermembrane. NUCL PHYS B. 542:157-194.
  • Fraser C; Tong D. (15 Oct 1998). Instantons, three dimensional gauge theories, and monopole moduli spaces. PHYS REV D. 5808.
  • Fraser C; Hollowood TJ. (5 Jun 1997). Semi-classical quantization in N=4 supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory and duality. PHYS LETT B. 402:106-112.
  • Fraser C; Hollowood TJ. (14 Apr 1997). On the weak coupling spectrum of N=2 supersymmetric SU(n) gauge theory. NUCL PHYS B. 490:217-235.
  • Dorey N; Fraser C; Hollowood TJ; Kneipp MAC. (12 Sep 1996). S-duality in N=4 supersymmetric gauge theories with arbitrary gauge group. PHYS LETT B. 383:422-428.

Chapters in books

  • Donnelly CA; Riley S; Fraser C; Ghani AC; Fisher MC; Ferguson NM; Anderson RM. Epidemiological analysis of SARS: a novel infectious disease. In Challenges of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome. 9-30. Chan JCK (ed); Wong VCWT (ed). Elsevier (2006).

Conferences

  • Fraser C; Anderson RM. HIV viral sex: inbreeding, recombination, drug resistance and clinical outcome. 8:U68-U69. (Jun 2003).
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