Research

Simulation of an Influenza Pandemic in the United Kingdom.

The Centre is an Outbreak Analysis Unit (OAU) dedicated to providing epidemiological analysis and modelling to assist national and international agencies to best plan for and respond to emerging infection threats with epidemic potential.  The Centre has works in several research areas.

This Centre works collaboratively with key partners (WHO, HPA and CDC), with unit staff spending a substantial proportion of their time working at partner sites. The unit builds on the established reputation of Centre researchers in epidemiological analysis of past novel disease epidemics, including HIV, BSE and vCJD, the 2001 foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic, SARS, and most recently the H5N1 avian influenza epidemic.

Integrated with the OAU is a core research programme to develop a global epidemic modelling and analysis platform. This programme is developing the first epidemic simulator capable of modelling the entire global human population and thus capturing the dynamics of epidemic spread at all scales of interest – from the household to international spread. Fundamental to the utility of such a modelling platform is rigorous parameter estimation and model validation. Collation of high resolution demographic and population movement datasets with global coverage will also be critical. As well as being scientifically challenging, the computational challenges are considerable. Hence we have engaged with industrial partners in the IT sector to support this programme.