Current Projects
A continental-scale simulator for modelling malaria eradication strategies
Over the past decade malaria intervention coverage has been scaled-up across Africa. However, it remains unclear what overall reduction in transmission is achievable and where limited resources should be focused. The aim of this project is to develop a suite of models to explore the impact of current and future interventions on P.falciparum malaria transmission in Africa.
Modelling the impact of malaria vaccines
The first malaria vaccine, RTS,S, has now reached Phase III trials. The aim of this project is to better understand the impact of pre-erythrocytic vaccines on transmission using a combination of within- and between-host models.
Barriers to effectiveness: ACT and the health system
Artemisinin combination therapies (ACT) are increasingly deployed as first-line treatment for malaria. However their effectiveness is compromised by the practical constraints of weak health systems on appropriate delivery. The aim of this project is to understand which health systems factors may act as barriers to the effectiveness of ACT in reducing malaria transmission.
Blocking the transmission of malaria: The mosquito vector target
The complex biology of Plasmodium both within the mosquito and vertebrate host has recently started to be exploited for designing novel ways to intercept transmission. The aim of this project is to investigate the impact of different transmission-blocking strategies (including vaccines, drugs, and the mosquito’s immune system) on the epidemiology of malaria and to predict the parasite’s and vector’s evolutionary responses to control.
The population dynamics of Plasmodium within the mosquito
This work aims to characterize the role played by parasite density dependence, as well as to describe the temporal dynamics of Plasmodium sporogony within the mosquito. The ultimate goal is to contribute to the design and evaluation of transmission-blocking strategies (TBS). The approach is multi-pronged, encompassing experimental work and the analysis of laboratory- and field-derived datasets, as well as statistical and mathematical modelling.
Monitoring trends in malaria transmission using serological markers of malaria exposure
As malaria transmission declines, current methods for defining transmission intensity such as the Entomological Inoculation Rate (EIR) and parasite prevalence (PrP) become difficult to measure. We are developing statistical and mathematical methods to interpret data from serological studies to provide an appropriate measure of ongoing transmission.
Mathematical models to guide treatment and prevention strategies for P.falciparum malaria during pregnancy
The aims of this project are to develop our existing individual-based simulation of P.falciparum malaria transmission to incorporate the aetiology of malaria in pregnancy, treatment and interventions, including intermittent preventive therapy for pregnant women (IPTp), screen and treat programs and passive case detection. The model will be used to address issues of appropriate use of IPTp as transmission declines.
Human movement patterns and malaria transmission
This project aims to both quantify movement patterns in Africa and investigate its impact on transmission of malaria. A number of datasources are being used and compared to inform our understanding of movement patterns in both rural and urban Africa. Models are also being used to investigate the likely impact of these movements on malaria transmission and the effectiveness of interventions.
