School of Public Health

Population Health, Burden of Disease, and Comparative Risk Assessment

Consistent and comparable information on health outcomes, risk factors, and interventions at the population level is needed to inform planning, resource allocation, program implementation, monitoring and evaluation.

We develop, parameterize, and apply epidemiology-based models to quantify the effects of environmental, behavioural, nutritional, and metabolic risk factors and their interventions on population health, globally and in specific countries. These analyses, known as Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA), are widely used to inform priority setting by national and international agencies.

Recent work has focused on analytics and data for multiple risk factors and time varying risk factors. The original CRA Study formed the scientific basis of the World Health Report 2002: Reducing Risks, Promoting Healthy Life . The CRA analysis is currently being updated in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study and will provide estimates of the global and regional exposure to and burden of selected risk factors in 1990 and 2005.

You can see the details of specific projects, and related publications, by selecting them below.

Publications (complete list on publications page)

Ezzati M, Lopez AD, Rodgers A, Vander Hoorn S, Murray CJL, the Comparative Risk Assessment Collaborating Group. Selected major risk factors and global and regional burden of disease. Lancet 2002; 360(9343):1347-1360

Murray CJL, Ezzati M, Lopez AD, Rodgers A, Vander Hoorn S. Comparative quantification of health risks: conceptual framework and methodological issues. Population Health Metrics 2003; 1: 1

Ezzati M, Vander Hoorn S, Rodgers A, Lopez AD, Mathers CD, Murray CJL, the Comparative Risk Assessment Collaborating Group. Estimates of global and regional potential health gains from reducing multiple major risk factors. Lancet 2003; 362(9380):271-280

Rodgers A, Ezzati M, Vander Hoorn S, Lopez AD, Lin R-B, Murray CJL, the Comparative Risk Assessment Collaborating Group. Distributions of major global health risks: findings from the global burden of disease project. PLoS Medicine 2004; 1(1):e27

Ezzati M, Lopez AD, Rodgers A, Murray CJL (Eds). Comparative Quantification of Health Risks: The Global and Regional Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risk Factors (Volumes 1 and 2). Geneva: World Health Organization, 2004

Danaei G, Vander Hoorn S, Lopez AD, Murray CJL, Ezzati M, the Comparative Risk Assessment Collaborating Group. Causes of cancer in the world: comparative risk assessment of nine behavioural and environmental risk factors. Lancet 2005; 366(9499):1784-1793

Lopez AD, Mathers CD, Ezzati M, Jamison DT, Murray CJL (Eds). Global Burden of Disease and Risk Factors. New York: Oxford University Press, 2006

Lopez AD, Mathers CD, Ezzati M, Jamison D, Murray CJL. The global and regional burden of disease and risk factors, 2001: systematic analysis of population health data. Lancet 2006; 367(9524):1747-1757

Danaei G, Lawes CMM, Vander Hoorn S, Murray CJL, Ezzati M. Global and regional mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke attributable to higher-than-optimal blood glucose concentration: comparative risk assessment. Lancet 2006; 368(9548):1651-1659

Gakidou E, Oza S, Vidal Fuertes C, Li AY, Lee DK, Sousa A, Hogan MC, Vander Hoorn S, Ezzati M. Improving child survival through environmental and nutritional interventions: the importance of targeting interventions toward the poor. JAMA 2007; 298(16): 1876-1887

Asaria P, Chisholm D, Mathers C, Ezzati M, Beaglehole R. Chronic disease prevention: health effects and financial costs of strategies to reduce salt intake and control tobacco use. Lancet 2007; 370(9604): 2044-2053

Lin HH, Murray MM, Cohen T, Colijn C, Ezzati M. Effects of smoking and solid-fuel use on COPD, lung cancer, and tuberculosis in China: a time-based, multiple-risk-factor modelling study. Lancet 2008; 372(9648):1473-1483

Stevens G, Dias RH, Ezzati M. The effects of three environmental risks on mortality disparities across Mexican communities. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 2008; 105(44): 16860-16865

Danaei G, Ding, E, Mozaffarian D, Taylor B, Rehm J, Murray CJL, Ezzati M. The preventable causes of death in the United States: comparative risk assessment of dietary, lifestyle, and metabolic risk factors. PLoS Medicine 2009; 6(4): e1000058 (voted best Open Access paper published between 2004 and 2009)

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