HIV infection dynamics

HIV epidemic dynamics; HIV virulence; Within-host dynamics.

Back to Evolutionary Epidemiology group

Our attention has been shifting from within-host replication dynamics, HIV recombination and drug resistance, to issues surrounding the epidemic spread of infection. One important theme is characterising heterogeneities in people's transmissibility. We have been particularly focussing on the role of heterogeneity in viral load and stage of infection, and modelling the impact of antiretroviral treatment on preventing epidemic spread.

We have recently proposed the hypothesis that HIV may have adapted to maximise it's transmissibility between hosts, and are currently testing this with data collected by our collaborators in the Netherlands, and from the Rakai cohort.

Some recent publications:

• Fraser C; Hollingsworth TD; Chapman R; de Wolf F; Hanage WP. Variation in HIV-1 set-point viral load: epidemiological analysis and an evolutionary hypothesis. PNAS (2007).Publisher weblink DOI.
• Hollingsworth TD; Anderson RM; Fraser C.  HIV-1 transmission, by stage of infection. J Infect Dis (2008). DOI Open Access copy.
  
• Bezemer D; de Wolf F; Boerlijst MC; van Sighem A; Hollingsworth TD; Fraser C. 27 years of the HIV epidemic amongst men having sex with men in the Netherlands: An in depth mathematical model-based analysis. Epidemics (in press). Weblink.