Outbreak analysis and modelling
SARS; Influenza pandemic planning; H1N1 influenza; Methodology
Back to Evolutionary Epidemiology group
One message from our analysis of the RSTINDEX=0&fdate=10/1/1995&tdate=3/31/2005">2003 Hong Kong SARS outbreak, with Steven Riley, is that surveillance can and should allow analysis of epidemics in real time. We now aim to make best use of real-time epidemiological and virological surveillance data.We have focussed on developing analytical mathematical techniques that make efficient use of these data.
Predicting the efficacy of isolation and contact tracing to control emerging infections. Click for larger version.
In the case of influenza pandemic planning, simple analytical techniques provide general insights which complement predictions derived from individual based microsimulations developed by Neil Ferguson. We have for example developed analytical insights which explain why SARS is easier to control than influenza despite being more infectious (see figure on right with updated flu estimates).
The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic generated justified global concern, but luckily has so far proved mild in most infected people. Our early analysis (with many collaborators) made use of the wide range of epidemiological surveillance data, travel data and virological genetic data to characterise the first outbreaks, and provided estimates of transmissibility which have been verified during subsequent pandemic spread.
Some recent publications:
- Fraser C; Riley S; Anderson RM; Ferguson NM. Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable. PNAS (2004) Publisher weblink DOI.
- Fraser C. Estimating individual and household reproduction numbers in an emerging epidemic. PLoS ONE (2007) Publisher weblink DOI
- Fraser C; Donnelly CA; Cauchemez S; Hanage WP; Van Kerkhove MD; Hollingsworth TD; Griffin J; Baggaley RF; et al. Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1): Early findings. Science (2009). DOI.
