Example Scenarios

Some example results from Malaria Tools are shown below which compare different intervention strategies for a particular setting. The program displays the predicted dynamic change over time in the slide-prevalence of infection and in the average rate of infectious bites received per person per year (the entomological inoculation rate, EIR). In this output, the example setting of Maputo in Mozambique has been selected. Transmission in this area before any substantial coverage of malaria control interventions was characterized using data on biting rates which were measured over a 2-year period from 1994-1996 (see accompanying publication for details).

Example 1

Two simulations are shown for a population of 1000 individuals, displaying the predicted EIR with seasonal fluctuations (1) in the absence of any control interventions other than standard treatment of symptomatic malaria cases and (2) when insecticide-treated nets (ITN) are introduced at year 5. The assumed coverage of ITN and duration of their insecticidal effect are shown at the top right.

Example 2

Four simulations are shown in which different intervention strategies are started at year 5 using insecticide residual spraying (IRS) at different frequencies, with or without a mass screen and treat (MSAT) programme. The predicted change in EIR is shown 5 years before and 5 years after the start of the interventions.

Example 3

The output from Example 2 is switched to a summary view which shows the smoothed (average) annual EIR at year 10 of the simulation.