School of Public Health

A continental-scale simulator for modelling malaria eradication strategies

Recently there has been a shift in focus from endemic control of malaria towards defining strategies for local elimination and global eradication. Mathematical models have been identified as important in informing the decisions to be made in planning such large-scale and intensive intervention programmes - both to guide the broader strategic direction behind worldwide elimination as well as to inform national and local policy in countries aiming to eliminate malaria.

Within this project, we are developing a spatially-explicit individual-based simulation model for malaria transmission and control in Africa capable of answering the strategic and policy-relevant questions that are likely to arise under an eradication strategy. This includes development of appropriate models for the acquisition and loss of immunity to severe disease, clinical disease and parasites in the human population and integration of these models with weather-driven vector dynamics.

Our current simulation model allows us to explore the impact of a range of interventions on malaria transmission, including the impact of ACT as first-line treatment, long-lasting insecticide nets (LLIN), indoor residual spraying, mass treatment, IPTi and IPTc and pre-erthrocytic vaccines.

This project is part of the Vaccine Modelling Initiative.

Recent Publications


Griffin JT, Hollingsworth TD, Okell L, Churcher TS, White MJ, Hinsley W, Bousema T, Drakeley CJ, Ferguson NM, Basanez MG, Ghani AC (2010). Strategies to reduce P.falciparum malaria transmission in Africa using currently available tools.  PLoS Medicine 7(8) e1000324.Publisher's Link.

Okell LC, Drakeley CJ, Bousema T, Whitty CJ, Ghani AC (2008) Modelling the impact of artemisinin combination therapy and long-acting treatments on malaria transmission intensity. PLoS Medicine, 5: e226; discussion e226. Publisher's Link.

Gosling RD, Ghani AC, Deen JL, von Seidlein L, Greenwood BM, Chandramohan D (2008) Can changes in malaria transmission intensity explain prolonged protection and contribute to high protective efficacy of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in infants? Malaria Journal, 7: 54. Publisher's Link.


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