Paul Aylin

Dr Paul Aylin leads work-stream 3, “infection surveillance” with Professor Alison Holmes also from Imperial College, and Mike Catchpole from the Health Protection Agency (HPA).The research in this work-stream focuses specifically on using existing databases in the NHS, HPA and elsewhere to their fullest potential to improve early warning and risk prediction in the Trust.  The novel uses of such existing local databases will enhance surveillance capability of healthcare associated infections at an organisational level, and help develop predictive models to identify individual at risk patients

Paul is leading research to develop sustainable mechanisms for extending the range, quality and sophistication of current data on infection and risk in the NHS in order to prevent and manage infection.  He will also be using his expertise in developing statistical tools and near real-time monitoring to establish measurable predictors of readmission for infections including MRSA bacteraemia, surgical site infection (SSI) and C. difficile based on routinely collected information.

Paul’s previous work has involved developing surveillance data to improve practice /patient safety and prevent disease.  Such tools help clinicians to interpret and act on the results of surveillance.  In the same way he is leading the work to develop surveillance in high risk populations and developing surveillance schemes across the primary and secondary care interface, including post-discharge surveillance, and evaluating systems to monitor antibiotic resistance and prescribing practice to facilitate the investigation of antibiotic strategies across primary and acute care.

Background

Paul Aylin is a Clinical Reader in Epidemiology and Public Health and the Assistant Director of the Dr Foster Unit at Imperial.  His research involves developing statistical methods to examine the environmental effects on health, mortality at GP and practice level over time, and near real-time monitoring of secondary care using routinely collected health data. 

Paul trained in Public Health Medicine and spent three years at the Office for
National Statistics as a Medical Statistician before coming to Imperial in 1997. His methods, models and indicators are used by both managers and clinicians in over two thirds of acute trusts to monitor quality of care. 

His health services research started with work commissioned by the Bristol Royal Infirmary Inquiry, looking into mortality in paediatric cardiac surgery in Bristol and following that, for the Shipman Inquiry.