School of Public Health

MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling

coam smallerOur mission is to be an international resource and centre of excellence for research on the epidemiological analysis and modelling of novel infectious disease outbreaks. (more information)

Recent Publications


7 Nov 2014
Kouyos RD, Metcalf CJ, Birger R, Klein EY, Abel zur Wiesch P, Ankomah P, Arinaminpathy N, Bogich TL, Bonhoeffer S, Brower C, Chi-Johnston G, Cohen T, Day T, Greenhouse B, Huijben S, Metlay J, Mideo N, Pollitt LC, Read AF, Smith DL, Standley C, Wale N, Grenfell B "The path of least resistance: aggressive or moderate treatment?" Proceedings - Royal Society. Biological sciences 281(1794) 20140566 (2014) (pdf)

16 Oct 2014 
Blake I, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Garske T, Jombart T, Nouvellet P, Riley S, Van Kerkhove MD, et al. "Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa - The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections" New England Journal of Medicine 371(16)1481-1495 (2014) (pdf)

13 Oct 2014
Eaton JW, Hallett TB "Why the proportion of transmission during early-stage HIV infection does not predict the long-term impact of treatment on HIV incidence" Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 111(45) 16202–16207 (2014) (pdf)

3 Oct 2014
Faria NR, Rambaut A, Suchard MA, Baele G, Bedford T, Ward MJ, Tatem AJ, Sousa JD, Arinaminpathy N, Pepin J, Posada D, Peeters M, Pybus OG, Lemey P "HIV epidemiology. The early spread and epidemic ignition of HIV-1 in human populations" Science 346(6205), 56-61 (2014) (pdf)

1 Oct 2014
Dalziel BD, Huang K, Geoghegan JL, Arinaminpathy N, Dubovi EJ, Grenfell BT, Ellner SP, Holmes EC, Parrish CR "Contact heterogeneity, rather than transmission efficiency, limits the emergence and spread of canine influenza virus." Plos Pathogens. 10(10) (2014) (pdf)

More publications

Principal Investigators

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